The long view
Ideas first.Capital second.
A living notebook on durable businesses, technological inflections, and the discipline to wait.
Explore the theses01 / Theses in progress
What I'm trying to understand
These are directions, not declarations. Each one is a map of open questions that changes as the evidence does.
Intelligence becomes abundant
As the cost of useful intelligence falls, software shifts from tools people operate to work that completes itself.
Where does value settle after models commoditize?
The physical world gets an API
Robotics, sensing, and simulation are collapsing the boundary between software and the physical economy.
Which bottleneck breaks the adoption curve?
Energy is the unlock
Cheaper, denser energy expands the frontier for compute, manufacturing, transportation, and human ambition.
Who captures the surplus of abundance?
02 / Operating principles
The work is not predicting every turn. It is finding what gets more true with time.
Good investing is a practice in epistemology: knowing what you know, what you do not, and what would change your mind.
- 01
Understand the machine
Map the product, incentives, and economics until the story reduces to a clear causal chain.
- 02
Look for inevitability
Prefer forces that keep improving independent of headlines, sentiment, or a single management team.
- 03
Price is part of the thesis
A great business can still be a bad investment. Expected value begins with what is already assumed.
- 04
Protect the right to wait
Size risk so volatility creates options instead of forcing decisions. Survival is the first compounding loop.
03 / Research shelf